FX MARKET OUTLOOK 16 JUNE 2022

A large fundamental factor for USD traders to consider is the mass layoffs in American tech & web3 companies, with thousands of job losses being reported. The next NFP is likely to show a negative number, and between the “sell the news” from the fed hike ,and selling the rumour for declining US employment I’m of the opinion we’ll see some mid-term USD selling.

Yesterday the Fed hiked rates by 0.75%, the largest increase since 1994. We saw a “buy the rumour, sell the news” style reaction last night, with USD being sold. Lets have a go over the charts and see what happened, and what to look for the rest of this week. 

AUDUSD

Price made a strong bounce out of 0.68550 yesterday, and is now fluctuating around the 70 cent figure. Resistance lies just above at 0.70300. Odds are that today we’ll see a bullish continuation from the bullish engulfing candle yesterday. 1D chart below. 

On the hourly chart looking to see price hold above 0.69700. If price is able to break back below the support trendline and 50 hour moving average I’ll continue looking for downside.

AUDJPY

AUDJPY has so far held above the 50 day average price, having now closed two days bullish. It seems that the buyers have a sense of humour, as they’re holding the stoner-significant 92.420 support figure (ha).

Looking at the 4H chart it’s a bullish sign that price has broken the short term resistance trendline. Price is currently trying to break a considerable resistance zone, and if it’s successful I’ll be cautiously holding longs (currently hold AUDJPY long from 93.36). Above resistance is relatively uncharted territory recently, and my thoughts are that the BOJ will have to adjust policy in the next few months).

Short watchlist for this week, but I’m liking the Aussie pairs the most. Waiting for the dust to settle a bit for EURUSD and GBPUSD trades.