Singapore Exports Record Rise, Omicron Has Little Impact
Singapore Non-Oil domestic exports rose at the fastest rate in almost 10 years in November. The 24.2% growth smashed the consensus estimate of 17.3%, and provided the largest jump since February 2012. In October growth was 17.8%.
The growth comes as a surprise as the Covid-19 Omicron variant was expected to dampen economic growth. Goldman Sachs stated that they have not seen much of a negative economic impact of the variant. The reality is that markets are pricing in the reality of Omicron – that it is more transmissible but less fatal. Forecasting suggests that this will allow a herd immunity to form, and fatality to fizzle out.
Economists are predicting a 6-month return to normalcy, and this is what the market appears to have focused on.
So, should you look for risk trades?
Not necessarily. Risk assets aren’t trading at cheap levels, inflation is high, and interest rates are being raised or reviewed globally. In addition, rules in China are different, and there is low levels of natural immunity. There is also no certainty that the Sinovac vaccine is effective against the Omicron variant. It’s also important to note that China is at greater risk of sever lockdowns that damage the nations economy and international trade.